The Kitchen Cabinet Manufacturers Association released its June 2026 Trend of Business report on August 5, 2026, and the numbers confirm what many dealers have already felt in the showroom: cabinet demand remains stuck in a year-over-year decline. Overall U.S. cabinet sales dropped 2.8% in June compared with the same month a year earlier [1]. That follows an 8.4% decline in May and a 3.5% decline in April [1]. The pattern is not a single-month blip; it is a stretch of sustained softness.
The new data lands just as the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) is walking a fine line between caution and optimism in its 2026 housing outlook. NAHB projects single-family housing starts to inch up only 1% this year to 940,000 units, a level that still reflects deep affordability and construction challenges [2]. On the remodeling side, NAHB expects residential remodeling expenditures to rise 3% in inflation-adjusted terms [2] — a modest gain that offers some cushion for cabinet pros but hardly a cure for the broader housing slump.
For cabinet dealers, kitchen designers, and builders, the combined picture is clear: the new-construction pipeline remains weak, and remodeling is doing only some of the lifting. This article breaks down the latest KCMA numbers, what the NAHB forecast means for the trade, and how to position your business for the rest of 2026.
The KCMA Numbers: A Three-Month Slide
The June 2026 Trend of Business report is the most recent monthly snapshot from the KCMA, a trade association that tracks shipments from the nation's major cabinet manufacturers. Its headline finding is a 2.8% year-over-year decline in overall U.S. cabinet sales for June 2026 [1]. But the June figure comes on the heels of sharper drops earlier in the spring. May 2026 sales were down 8.4% from May 2025, and April 2026 sales were down 3.5% from April 2025 [1][3].
The improvement from May to June — from negative 8.4% to negative 2.8% — might look like momentum, but it is important to keep the context in mind. Two of the last three months have posted declines greater than 3%, and even the best month in the quarter was still below the prior year. The industry hasn't seen a clear return to growth, and the month-to-month volatility suggests demand is still searching for a floor.
It's also worth noting that the KCMA data reflects shipments, not consumer orders. Dealers often feel the pinch first at the design stage, while manufacturers see the lag when orders are finalized and shipped. The fact that shipments are still down after a spring selling season — typically a busy time for kitchen projects — points to a restrained pipeline.
This isn't a complete reversal from a healthy base. The KBDN 'Return to Growth' forecast for 2026 noted that the industry had already experienced a full-year decline in 2025 [4]. While the specific monthly figures for 2025 weren't detailed in that forecast, the trend line heading into 2026 was already negative. The new 2026 monthly data suggests the industry has not yet turned the corner.
NAHB's Housing Forecast: A Modest Uptick, Not a Rebound
The NAHB's February 2026 housing outlook is titled "Ongoing Challenges, Cautious Optimism and Incremental Gains" — and the title pretty much says it all. For single-family construction, NAHB projects only a 1% increase in starts in 2026, to 940,000 units [2]. That's a far cry from the historical norms of the early 2020s, and it reflects an environment where affordability, labor costs, and financing hurdles continue to suppress builder sentiment.
For cabinet manufacturers and dealers whose business is tied to new-home construction, a 1% increase is barely enough to hold the line. Even if the forecast is realized, it means the new-construction channel will not be a source of growth for cabinet sales in 2026. Instead, it will simply stop being a drag — and that's assuming builders hit that number.
The NAHB also points to ongoing challenges in the housing market [2]. High interest rates, elevated materials costs, and a shortage of developed lots are not new problems, but they are persistent ones. For cabinets, this translates into fewer starts, smaller square footage per home, and more price-sensitive buyers.
The "cautious" part of the NAHB outlook is well founded. A 1% increase is well below what would be needed to call the housing market healthy. And because cabinets are typically specified several months after a foundation is poured, any pickup in starts in late 2026 won't show up in cabinet shipment data until 2027.
Remodeling: The Only Bright Spot, and It's Dim
If new construction is the weight on cabinet sales, remodeling is the counterweight — but a lighter one than the industry might desire. NAHB expects residential remodeling expenditures to increase 3% in inflation-adjusted terms in 2026 [2]. That is a real gain, not just a nominal one, which means homeowners are actually spending more at the project level.
For cabinet professionals, this is the channel to lean into. Renovations and replacements are less dependent on mortgage rates and new-home inventory. Homeowners who are staying in place are more likely to invest in their existing kitchens, especially if they are not moving due to the "lock-in" effect of low-rate mortgages.
Still, a 3% increase in remodeling spending is modest. It doesn't offset the combined drag of a flat new-construction market and the overall economic uncertainty affecting consumer confidence. The KCMA data suggests that the offset is happening but not enough to lift overall cabinet sales into positive territory. The fact that total cabinet sales were down in April, May, and June — even while remodeling spending was growing — underscores how weak the new-construction component is.
There's also a question of where those remodeling dollars are going. In an inflationary environment, a 3% real increase in expenditures could be absorbed by higher prices for materials and labor rather than by the purchase of more physical cabinets. Cabinet producers may be selling fewer units but realizing higher dollar value per unit — a scenario that doesn't help dealers who measure their business by the number of kitchens they install.
What This Means for Cabinet Dealers and Designers
For those on the front line, the KCMA and NAHB data point to a few practical realities.
1. New Construction Won't Save You
With only a 1% projected rise in single-family starts [2], custom and semi-custom cabinet makers who rely heavily on builder contracts need to diversify their sales mix. If you haven't already, now is the time to strengthen relationships with remodelers and general contractors who focus on renovation work. The KCMA's sales declines are a signal that the tide of builder-driven demand is not rising.
2. Remodeling Is the Growth Channel — But It's Competitive
The 3% remodeling growth forecast [2] means there are more projects to chase, but also more competition from big-box retailers, direct-to-consumer e-commerce players, and national refacing chains. Dealers should emphasize design services, custom features, and installation quality — offerings that online sellers can't easily replicate.
3. Be Prepared for Continued Price Pressure
When shipment volumes are down, manufacturers often offer promotions to keep production lines running. Dealers should negotiate hard on pricing, particularly on semi-custom lines where there is excess capacity. But also be wary of holding too much inventory in a market with soft demand. The quarterly trends — down 3.5%, down 8.4%, down 2.8% — suggest that forecasting will be tricky. A lean inventory strategy may be more prudent than stocking up in anticipation of a rebound.
4. Watch Regional Differences
The KCMA data is national, but housing starts and remodeling activity vary widely by region. NAHB's forecast of 940,000 single-family starts [2] is an aggregate number. Some areas, particularly in the South, may see stronger building activity, while others could see stagnation. Dealers should track local permit data and builder sentiment in their own markets rather than relying solely on national trends.
5. Position for the Long-Term Shift to Smaller Spaces
Affordability challenges are leading builders to construct smaller homes, which often means fewer cabinets per unit. To maintain revenue, dealers may need to upsell on premium materials, hardware, and organization features. Even if the number of cabinets per project declines, the dollar value can remain healthy if design- and functionality-focused customization is the priority.
The Forecast: Cautious Optimism or Continued Pain?
The NAHB's headline terms — "cautious optimism" and "incremental gains" [2] — capture the mood of the industry. But for cabinets, the optimism seems to be on an extended delay. The 2026 housing outlook was released in February, and by the summer the KCMA data is still showing year-over-year declines [1]. This suggests that the "incremental gains" have yet to materialize in the cabinet sector.
One could argue that the worst is over because the May decline of 8.4% was replaced by a gentler June decline of 2.8% [1]. But that interpretation is dangerous. A single month's improvement is not a trend. The three-month average decline stands at roughly 4.9%, which is still significant.
Additionally, the NAHB forecast of a 1% rise in single-family starts [2] was made in February, before the Federal Reserve's latest rate decisions and before the spring economic data. If rates remain elevated or if the broader economy slows, even that modest expectation could be revised downward. Cabinet sales, with their sensitivity to housing turnover, will be among the first sectors to feel the effects.
The remodeling side is more stable. A 3% inflation-adjusted gain [2] is a positive sign, and cabinet dealers who pivot aggressively toward the renovation and replacement market may be able to grow their top line even as the industry overall remains in the red. The KCMA data does not break out remodeling vs. new construction, so the exact split is unclear, but the NAHB's separate forecast gives a reason to believe the renovation channel is carrying the day.
Strategies for the Rest of 2026
Given the data, here are actions to consider — not as legal or investment advice, but as practical business responses to the market signals.
- Double down on showroom experience. If homeowners are remodeling rather than moving, they are spending time in showrooms. Make your showroom a destination. Feature kitchens that show how cabinetry can transform a home at a variety of price points.
- Target the "lock-in" remodeler. Many homeowners are staying put due to low mortgage rates, but they are also fed up with outdated spaces. Market directly to them through social media, local home shows, and partnerships with real estate agents who can refer renovation clients.
- Offer flexible refacing solutions. Full cabinet replacements are expensive. Refacing, refronting, and updating cabinet hardware can win jobs for clients who want a new look without a full gut. This is a way to maintain revenue even when the size of the project is smaller.
- Re-evaluate your builder portfolio. If you are heavily dependent on production builders who are still struggling to secure financing, consider adding modular or multi-family projects to your mix. Multi-family starts, while not covered in the NAHB single-family forecast, may behave differently.
- Track the KCMA data monthly. The Trend of Business report is the best leading indicator for your own revenue. Use it to adjust your sales targets and marketing spend. If the declines are accelerating, pull back; if they are tapering, start preparing for a recovery.
Conclusion: The Floor Is Not Yet in Sight
The KCMA data for April, May, and June 2026 paints a picture of an industry still contracting, albeit with some signs that the pace of decline may be moderating [1]. The NAHB's 2026 forecast of just 1% growth in single-family starts [2] offers little hope for a new-construction-driven turnaround, while its 3% remodeling forecast [2] provides a modest but real opportunity.
Cabinet dealers and designers who thrive in the second half of 2026 will be those who treat remodeling as their primary growth channel, keep inventory flexible, and watch local market data closely. The national numbers are a cautionary tale, not a fate. With the right positioning, it is possible to grow your own business even while the industry overall is down.
But for those waiting for a broad market rebound, the evidence says the wait is going to be longer. The housing challenges that NAHB highlights — affordability, construction costs, and financing — are structural, not cyclical, and they are not going away by next quarter. Cabinet sales are likely to remain in the red for at least the next few months, and perhaps longer.
For now, the most valuable thing cabinet professionals can do is align their business plan with the reality of the data. That means focusing on remodels, building stronger local relationships, and being prepared for a market that rewards flexibility over optimism.
The KCMA's June report is the latest reminder that the cabinet industry is not yet out of the woods. But it's also a reminder that even in a declining market, there are niches of growth — if you know where to look.